Real estate · Industry brief

ULI and PwC's Emerging Trends in Real Estate survey, released annually at the ULI Fall Meeting, has demonstrated mixed predictive accuracy over its 47-year history. Analysis of the survey's calls from 2003 onward reveals five notably accurate predictions: the 2010 edition correctly identified hotels as a recovery opportunity despite survey respondents ranking them last; the 2006 edition accurately signaled to sell retail categories including malls and power centers; the 2010 edition properly timed the market bottom as an optimal buying opportunity for investors with cash; the 2023 edition correctly predicted rising capitalization rates and falling returns despite early temptation to declare the correction complete; and the 2016 edition identified industrials as the top-performing sector, a call that proved prescient across ten consecutive editions through 2023. However, the survey has also produced significant misses, including underestimating GFC losses, misjudging cap rate compression in 2012, and failing to anticipate mortgage rate increases in 2021. The 2027 edition will be published next week.

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